News

Imports Winding Down as Holiday Season Nears Finish Line 
With most holiday merchandise already on retailers’ shelves or in their warehouses, December cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports should be significantly below records set earlier this year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. “Retailers are in the middle of the annual holiday frenzy but ports are headed into their winter lull after one of the busiest and most challenging years we’ve ever seen,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We’ve dodged a rail strike and the retail supply chain should be able to easily handle the remaining weeks of the holiday season. But it’s time to settle on a labor contract for West Coast ports and address other supply chain issues that remain so the lull doesn’t become the calm before a storm.” | More Information 


EXEC: Smith & Wesson Sees Firearms Demand Recovery Stall
Shares of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. lost about 17 percent of its value on Wednesday after the firearms maker reported a 47.5 percent drop in sales in the second quarter ended October 31 due to ongoing inventory rebalancing in the marketplace, combined with the impact of promotional activity by competitors and the trading down by consumers to a lower-priced product. On a call with analysts, Mark Smith, president and CEO, said sales and profitability remain above pre-pandemic levels, with the year-over-year decline reflecting a surge in demand in the year-ago period tied to the pandemic. He also noted that more normal demand levels are expected in the second half of its fiscal year; however, consumer demand for firearms decreased in the latter half of its second quarter. | More Information
 

Year-Over-Year Retail Sales Growth Continues in September
The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in September were unchanged from August but up 8.2 percent year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.4 percent month-over-month and 9.4 percent year-over-year in August. On a three-month moving average, sales were up 9.2 percent year-over-year. The National Retail Federation said retail sales remained strong, with the gain in September coming despite an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and continuing inflation. | More Information 


NRF Predicts Healthy Holiday Sales as Consumers Navigate Economic Headwinds
Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation today forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totaled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains. | More Information 


NRF Says Strong Consumer Fundamentals Counter Inflation and Interest Rates in Holiday Forecast
The National Retail Federation balanced high inflation and rising interest rates against strong consumer fundamentals as it developed its 2022 holiday spending forecast, Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today. “There are many factors impacting our holiday forecast, but business conditions are generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity,” Kleinhenz said. “Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat. The latest figures show the economy is holding together better than may have been expected.” Kleinhenz’s remarks came in the November issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which noted that gross domestic product rose by 2.6% in the third quarter. Kleinhenz called that “a healthy increase that should override any remaining fears that the economy is in a recession." Consumers’ willingness to spend has been “clearly impacted by inflation” but their ability to spend has been supported by job growth, rising wages and tapping into savings accumulated during the pandemic, the report said. September consumer spending rose 0.6% from August, which underscored that “demand remains strong and can be expected to continue.” | More Information 


Imports Slow as Holiday Season Ramps Up 
Imports at U.S. container ports continue to slow from the records set earlier in 2022, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker* report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. “Cargo levels that historically peak in the fall peaked in the spring this year as retailers concerned about port congestion, port and rail labor negotiations, and other supply chain issues stocked up far in advance of the holidays,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “With a rail strike possible this month, there are still challenges in the supply chain, but the majority of holiday merchandise is already on hand, and retailers are well prepared to meet demand.”
While consumers continue to spend, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said demand fell from peak consumption during the height of the pandemic. | More Information 

Year-Over-Year Retail Sales Growth Continues in September
The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in September were unchanged from August but up 8.2 percent year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.4 percent month-over-month and 9.4 percent year-over-year in August. On a three-month moving average, sales were up 9.2 percent year-over-year. The National Retail Federation said retail sales remained strong, with the gain in September coming despite an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and continuing inflation. | More Information 

NRF Says Consumers Still Spending Despite Worries Over Inflation and Interest Rates
Consumers remain worried about high inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intended to bring inflation under control, but neither has stopped them from spending, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The economic situation in the United States is unsettling,” Kleinhenz said. “Consumer confidence is down, consumer spending’s rate of growth has slowed, and economists and consumers alike are worried about the possibility of a recession, all reflecting persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. Nonetheless, spending continues to grow, and many economists say a recession – if there is one – will likely be mild.” | More Information 



Imports Headed to Lowest Level Since Early 2021 But Retailers Are Well Stocked for   Holidays
Imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly two years by the end of 2022 even though retail sales continue to grow, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. “The growth in U.S. import volume has run out of steam, especially for cargo from Asia,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Recent cuts in carriers’ shipping capacity reflect falling demand for merchandise from well-stocked retailers even as consumers continue to spend. Meanwhile, the closure of factories during China’s October Golden Week holiday along with the Chinese government’s continuing ‘Zero Covid’ policy have impacted production, reducing demand for shipping capacity from that side of the Pacific as well.” | More Information